Whether the increase in electricity price can end the power shortage?

Can electricity price increase end electricity shortage?

"After entering November, the coal-fired power upside down has become more serious. The price of coal has risen by 30 yuan per ton compared with last month." Recently, a staff member of Huaneng Huangtai Power Plant expressed concern to reporters. With the ever-increasing inversion of coal prices, power generation companies are facing the most severe operating pressure since 2008. In some regions, there are signs of power shortages again, and some provinces and cities may once again face the test of power cuts. Under such circumstances, the industry’s rumors of an upward adjustment of electricity prices may be approved in the near future, triggering strong questions. Some insiders said that although the increase in electricity prices can alleviate the current large-scale losses of power plants in the short term and increase the power generation enthusiasm of the power plants, this is not a long-term plan. Starting from the system and taking various measures can solve the coal-fired power dilemma in the country.

Shandong power company losses across the board

When the heating season arrived, the head of Huangtai Power Plant, which had a red light in coal stocks last month, finally breathed a sigh of relief. "Coal reserves are gradually recovering and have reached about 150,000 tons." The factory staff told reporters that the four units have been fully activated, and the daily coal consumption is 12,000 tons.

But on the other hand, the shadow of losses still shrouded many power generation companies. As coal prices continue to rise, electricity prices and heat prices are low, causing losses to power generation companies. As of September of this year, the unit purchase price of standard coal for Huangtai Power Plant was 1021.5 yuan/ton, up 86.33 yuan/ton from the same period of last year. After entering October, the coal price rose by 30-60 yuan/ton. In November, the price of coal rose by 30 yuan per ton compared to the previous month. It was only fuel, which accounted for 80% of the cost of power generation. The low electricity price and hot price exacerbated the overall loss of the company. From January to September 2011, Huangtai Power Plant suffered a loss of 284 million yuan, and accumulated heat loss was 31.21 million yuan.

It is understood that the loss of power generation companies in Shandong continues to increase, and the funding chain is tight. Although the country raised the on-grid tariff of power generation companies this year, it still cannot offset the rising cost of coal prices. According to statistics, the unit price of standard coal of Shandong Huaneng, Huadian, Guodian and Datang four major power companies from January to August reached RMB 987/ton, up RMB 80/ton over the same period of last year; the cost of electricity reached RMB 0.448, excluding the average on-grid price of 2.45 points. After kWh, the company still lost 2.8 cents/kWh. From January to August, the losses of the four major power companies in the central power company in Shandong were 90.9%; the accumulated losses were 3.33 billion yuan, which represented a loss of 1.278 billion yuan over the same period of last year.

The effect of raising the price of electricity is doubtful

“I hope this is not a false news. If the price of coal rises and the price of electricity does not rise, our days will be even more difficult.” When learning of the industry’s rumors that the price of electricity was raised, the first reaction of a person in charge of a power generation company was to increase coal prices. . In this regard, Zhongyu Information analyst Guan Dali said that the recent increase in the price of wind power is getting tighter and tighter, although the increase in power prices in the short term can ease the large-scale power plant losses, increase the power plant power generation enthusiasm, but the market is also full of electricity prices on the increase after the coal Concomitant upward worries about prices.

Guan Dali said that the contradiction between "market coal" and "planned electricity" has been long-standing. Since the marketization of coal prices became higher and higher, the prices continued to rise. Taking the example of the 5,000-calories Shanxi Qinyou Port of Qinhuangdao Port as an example, the price at this time last year was 660 yuan/ton, and the latest quotation was 745 yuan/ton. It rose 85 yuan/ton, or 12.8%, while the electricity price was only on April 10 this year. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of on-grid electricity in 12 provinces by about 2 points/kWh. On June 1, the NDRC raised the prices of industrial, commercial and agricultural electricity in 15 provinces and municipalities. However, statistics show that after the price of thermal power on-grid was raised in some provinces and cities in April this year, the profitability of thermal power has been temporarily improved. In the second quarter, the gross profit margin of all listed thermal power companies increased by 2 percentage points to 12.4%, and net profit increased by 368% from the previous quarter. However, the subsequent increase in coal prices eroded the gains brought about by the increase in electricity prices. In the third quarter, the gross profit margin of all listed thermal power companies dropped by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month, and the net profit decreased by 52% month-on-month. From the perspective of the profitability of listed thermal power companies, the upward adjustment of electricity prices will only bring benefits in the short term, and then it will be swallowed up by the increase in coal prices. Guan Dali believes that “solving the current coal-fired power situation is only enough to increase the price of electricity and allow consumers to pay for it. It is not enough.”

The power plant staff in the province also confirmed this statement. The increase in electricity prices may have limited effect on enterprises, and the coal price rebounded even more after the increase. “Sometimes we raise the price of electricity and our situation does not change before adjustment.” This staff member stated that .

Coal and electricity urgently need to "get out of trouble"

“The problem of electricity shortage and coal shortage is not that the electricity price is too low, but coal price is not linked.” Liu Dongna, analyst at Zhuochuang Information Coal, said that since the reform of the “electricity network separation and bidding” in 2002, China's power industry has implemented reforms. The price of electricity has always been regulated by the government. In 2004, coal-electricity linkage was implemented. However, in the face of the rapid increase in coal prices, the price adjustment is very limited. The reporter learned that although there are still key contract prices for coal, which are subject to state regulation, due to the low rate of contract enactment, the actual transaction volume of national key coal contracts this year is only around 400 million tons, and there are about 1.5 billion tons of electricity in the country. Coal needs to be purchased from the market. This part of the high-priced market coal is the focus of current coal-fired power plants.

However, there are different views in the industry. Zhongyu Information Analyst Guan Dali believes that coal-fired linkage can only alleviate contradictions in the short term. It can be seen from the results of the previous four coal-fired linkages that the coal linkage linkage policy has not been timely in the implementation process and the linkage scope is not in place. The power companies have experienced difficulties in operating and the power supply has been insufficient. The effect is not obvious. He analyzed that to solve the current coal power dilemma, it still has to start from the system. For coal power dilemmas, it is not enough to rely solely on the increase in electricity prices. This involves a number of factors. The first is to allow coal companies to reduce coal prices, and to make up for the losses brought about by profits by making more coal so that power plants can buy coal. The profitability of coal companies can also be guaranteed. However, how to make coal mines lower sales prices by increasing production will require the government to come forward and adjust them. Secondly, the transportation cost of coal, the price of coal from Inner Mongolia to Shandong, the price of coal pits, and the cost of freight transportation each account for half, and the solution to the bottleneck of transportation will greatly help reduce the burden on power plants. Once again, the government should balance all aspects of the industrial chain and subsidize power plants with lower profitability. The coal regulation funds that have recently been collected from all over the country are targeting this block. In the end, the power plant must start from its own, tap potential and increase efficiency, and the operating cost of private power plants is obviously lower than that of state-owned power plants. This shows that the power plant itself has the potential to be excavated, and it is necessary to change its lavish habits. In short, the solution to the dilemma of coal-fired power in the country cannot be changed overnight. It requires multi-sectoral cooperation, led by the government, coordinated by many parties, and resolved from the system.