Twelve Five-Light Thermal Power Generation Up to 1 Million Kilowatts

The reporter learned from the authoritative sources that in the forthcoming “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development”, the solar thermal power generation target is set to reach 1 million kilowatts in 2015 and 3 million kilowatts by 2020.

The "Planning" proposes that in the next five years, demonstrations of solar thermal power generation projects will be carried out in regions with good lighting conditions, a wide range of available land and water resources, and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will promote industrial development through these pilot regional projects. By 2020, it will begin to realize large-scale commercial applications.

The analysis pointed out that the installed capacity of 1 million kilowatts means that the scale of the solar thermal power generation market can reach 15 billion yuan in the next five years. Although the “body mass” is not large, due to the obvious advantages of photovoltaic power generation in terms of technology, power generation efficiency and global market situation, the market potential of solar thermal power generation in the next five years is more than expected, and currently the market is gradually Companies that are beginning to get involved in this area, especially equipment manufacturers, will usher in good news.

Concentrated Solar Power Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a solar thermal power generation technology that relies on various types of mirrors to collect and heat the sun's direct radiation (DNI) and heat the heat transfer medium. After heat exchange, high temperature water vapor is generated to promote the power generation of the steam turbine.

In the past, due to the lack of policy support and effective business practices of enterprises, the domestic market for climatic power generation was almost blank. This also led to the current cost per kilowatt for CSP is around RMB 1.5, which is higher than other forms of renewable energy power generation.

However, many industry experts pointed out that CSP and conventional fossil energy have the same principle in thermal power generation and have excellent power quality and can be directly accessible to the grid. At the same time, it can store energy and adjust peaks to achieve continuous power generation. More importantly, CSP is the same as thermal power in thermal power generation. CSP is more suitable for the construction of large-scale power plant projects. It can realize rapid cost reduction through economies of scale.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast, cumulative CSP installations in the world will reach 24.5 GW by 2015, with a compound growth rate of 90% for five years. By 2020, the on-grid tariffs are expected to drop below 10 cents/kWh.

In recent years, the development of China's solar thermal industry has received much attention from policy. In the Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in May this year, solar thermal power generation is the first to promote the development of new energy categories.

In the forthcoming “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development”, the four pilot CSP pilot regions that were initially developed are the flat deserts along the Yellow River in Ordos Highlands, the flat desert along the Hexi Corridor in Gansu, the Turpan Basin in Xinjiang, and the Tarim Basin. Tibet Lhasa and so on.

The breakthrough of 100 billion in 10 years pointed out that the current construction of a mainstream 50-megawatt trough solar thermal power plant, equipment (domestic) investment of 15,000 yuan per kilowatt or so, so if installed in 2015 reached 1 million kilowatts, 2020 With an annual calculation of 3 million kilowatts, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” photovoltaic power generation equipment alone can reach a market scale of 15 billion yuan, and the scale of the equipment market can reach 45 billion yuan within 10 years. With the large-scale commercialization of CSP in the next 10 years, the total investment in this market will reach 100 billion yuan.

Wang Haisheng, Chief Analyst of Huatai United Securities New Energy Industry, told the China Securities Journal that although the 2015 CSP installed target was set at 1 million kilowatts, it has announced that the scale of the upcoming project will reach 3 million kilowatts. With the help of various factors such as policy support, the potential of the domestic market for light and heat in the next five years is expected to exceed expectations.

More market analysis believes that similar to the scenario of domestic wind power generating explosive growth in the past five years, by 2020, the installed capacity of domestic solar thermal power generation is expected to exceed 10 million kilowatts, and the market size can reach more than 100 billion yuan.

It is understood that the companies currently involved in the CSP business in the domestic market are mainly divided into system integration and equipment manufacturing.

The system integration includes Datang Power Generation (601991), Tianwei Power Conversion (600550) and Zhonghai Yang (430065). The equipment manufacturers mainly include aviation power (600893), *ST Liyang (600885), Jinjing Technology (600586) and CSG A (000012) and other analysts pointed out that the large-scale start-up of the CSP market will be the first performance of the equipment market expansion, therefore, in the next five years equipment manufacturers in this area will take the lead to benefit from.